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Pourquoi la Constitution européenne Copenhagen Climate Summit - Diary.

From Copenhagen, Duncan MacKenzie, youth climate campaigner for Young Friends of the
Earth Europe reports for FE(E).

6th December 2009
Copenhague, J-1, est sur le point de se mettre en marche. La conférence de la jeunesse participe au sommet soit en tant qu’observateurs, soit pour représenter les ONG (ou, ce qui est plus rare, en tant que délégation gouvernementale). Ils se sont regroupés le weekend précédant la conférence pour se motiver et planifier en gros les actions et interventions de la quinzaine à venir. Les manifestations d’hier en Europe, qui ont vues tant de jeunes participé, montre la puissance et l’intensité de l’engagement que Copenhague aboutisse à un accord fort. Mais les leaders écouteront-ils l’appel? A l’intérieur de la conférence, tout est calme. Mais c’est le calme d’avant la tempête. Ce n’est probablement que le dernier jour que l’on verra si la présence (anticipée) d’Obama et les autres dirigeants pourront déclencher un accord véritablement ambitieux – c’est à dire, entre autres, que les pays industrialisés s’engagent à réduire émissions de gaz à effet de serre d’au moins 40% d’ici à 202
8th December 18.51
Denmark has put a spanner in the works with what is being seen as a calculated attempt to impose a solution on the developing world from developed countries including the UK and US. The new proposal, as leaked in draft form, would weaken any final deal by diluting the UN’s role in financing carbon reductions in developing countries and their adaptation to the effects of climate change. It effectively locks in inequalities between each person’s emissions in developed and developing countries over the next half-century.  The draft text also removes any mention of the especially ‘climate-friendly’ targets of not more than 1.5°C of global warming and a greenhouse gas concentration of not more than 350ppm.  It also removes the possibility that developed countries would agree to cut their emissions by 95% by 2050 to limit climate change.  These proposals would not put the world on a path to avoid 2°C of warming, and they suggest that developed countries are desperate for a result to hail as a ‘success’ next week.
African civil society reacted just after 6pm today to what they see as the unfair and inequitable deal being cooked up by the developed countries. Assembled en masse, they marched through the central hall of the conference centre in Copenhagen declaring that a deal which would result in more than 1°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels would be 'suicide'. Umuro Roba Godana, Director of the Sora Qere Centre in Nairobi, Kenya, said that the 2°C of warming which is the mainstream developed countries' target would lead to 4°C of warming in Africa which would lead to catastrophe.  In any case, the latest IPCC report suggests that 25-40% of Annex I reductions by 2020 - significantly more than is currently on the table - would yield just a 1 in 2 chance of avoiding 2°C by 2100.  The Africans were reacting in part to today's leaked Danish proposal which suggests that the Danish presidency is co-operating with developed peers to force through a deal taking control away from the UN.
9th December 16.32

Tuvalu - leader of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) - has caused the Copenhagen negotiations to be suspended by insisting that there is another legally-binding outcome besides the second period of the Kyoto Protocol. The international youth present at Copenhagen (as well as some developing countries including most small island states) have rallied in support of Tuvalu’s position, which also insists on the crucial 350ppm concentration and 1.5°C global warming target.  However, Tuvalu’s position is opposed by large developing countries including India and China.  Sources among the environmental NGOs suggest that Tuvalu has been put up to this by powerful developed countries in order to kill the Kyoto Protocol, since, they say, most developed countries – not just the US – would want to join a second legally-binding protocol instead. There are increasingly vocal demonstrations inside the conference; besides supporting Tuvalu’s position factions among the international youth have  called for ‘climate justice now’ (among them Young Friends of the Earth Europe) and a robust deal on forestry finance which does not include forests in carbon markets – to be decided today.  There are fears that UN climate security will begin increasingly to suppress these demonstrations.
11th December 01.19
Today the climate summit was again suspended because of the rumpus caused by Tuvalu’s insistence on a legally-binding outcome from Copenhagen in addition to targets for a second Kyoto commitment period. It has become clear that the proposal has created a split in the 110-odd-strong G77 and China group between Tuvalu and its allies (mainly AOSIS, the Alliance of Small Island States) and China, IndiaSaudi Arabia is staunchly opposed for obvious oil-related reasons.
There is an interesting rift between two factions of the environmentalist NGOs on this, with the mainstream ‘Climate Action Network’ standing behind Tuvalu’s position and honouring it with the first ever ‘Ray of the Day’ award, a positive counterpart to the ‘Fossil of the Day’ awards traditional in climate negotiations, while the newer ‘Climate Justice Now!’ network (CJN), including Friends of the Earth, suspects that Tuvalu was ‘put up’ to this proposal by the USA in order to delay the negotiations. CJN also takes the view that binding emissions reductions targets on developing countries would be contrary to the principle of climate justice, which obliges developed countries to pay their so-called ‘climate debt’. A British negotiator with whom we were in contact, however, played down the significance of the Danish text, and G77 members including Thailand were playing down the Tuvalu dispute.

Whatever the merits, the dispute remains that little progress has been made here for two negotiating days, which is 40% of the negotiating time available to countries before many environment ministers will arrive next Tuesday.

The President of Peace Child International, David Woollcombe, suggested that while the negotiations today may be debating percentages, degrees and parts per million, the focus should now move quickly to funding transition to a zero-carbon economy, and cited costs in the region of $41trn over 30 years.


... to follow

(le vendredi 11 décembre 2009.)
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